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We now see fires starting in March and April. One immediate effect is the lengthening of the fire season. In the Southwest, climate change has meant warmer, drier conditions. Often in the Southwest, our biggest fire years come when we have a wet period followed by a dry period, like the La Niña conditions we’re experiencing now. By now the grasses and forbs that established during the monsoon have dried out, leaving a lot of biomass that can carry a fire. Last summer, in 2021, the Southwest had an exceptional monsoon season that left green hillsides and lots of vegetation. This year we also have a lot of fuel to burn.
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Tom Story/Northern Arizona Type 3 Incident Management Team, via AP They’re pretty typical winds for spring, but fuels are now really dry and ready to burn.įire crews dig at burning roots in the wake of a fire near Flagstaff, Ariz., in April 2022. Some of the fires we’re seeing this year, like the Tunnel Fire near Flagstaff and the fires in New Mexico, are being driven by these really intense wind events. Unfortunately, the earlier timing coincides with when the region commonly experiences strong winds that can drive rapid fire growth. As temperatures rise, the snow melts more rapidly, more water evaporates into the atmosphere and the grasses and other fuels dry out earlier in the season.
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The earlier fire season is partly due to the warming climate. Now, the Southwest is seeing more fires start much earlier in the year. Historically, fire season in the Southwest didn’t ramp up until late May or June, because fuels that carry fires – primarily woody debris, leaf litter and dead grasses – didn’t fully dry out until then. Why is this year’s wildfire season in the Southwest so early and intense? We asked wildfire scientist Molly Hunter at the University of Arizona to explain what’s fueling the extreme fire conditions and why risky seasons like this are becoming more common.